📢 June Signals
🗒️ Market update
The past month has been marked by subdued price action across risk assets, with Bitcoin consolidating in a tight range despite elevated macro and geopolitical tensions. Notably, the Israel-Iran conflict, which initially triggered a risk-off reaction, has since led to reduced volatility as market participants wait to see whether the situation will escalate or de-escalate, as it has during previous flashpoints.
Historically, these periods of low volatility in crypto – especially during a broader bull market context – tend to precede significant moves. Given the underlying strength of the market structure and continued institutional interest, the bias remains skewed toward an upside breakout.
We dusted of some BlackRock analysis looking at immediate and near term performance of different asset in major geopolitical events that is worth keeping front of mind.
While the market waits for short-term direction from the resolution of the Iran–Israel conflict, the Fed is also in a holding pattern, with policymakers becoming increasingly polarised in their dot plot. Back in March, there was consensus for two rate cuts by September, but now the committee is clearly split—between those pushing for two cuts and others advocating for none. If tariff-induced inflation doesn’t show up in the next one or two CPI prints, then all else being equal, rate cuts are likely to return to consensus.
Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF flows are picking up (below), as investors seek broader crypto exposure beyond BTC, this could also be a catalyst for the next Alt coin cycle. Demand for crypto remains strong, as evidenced by the Circle IPO, which was priced at $31 per share, opened at $69, and is now trading around $199—just a few weeks post-listing. Now is an opportune time to bring a crypto IPO or ETF to Wall St.
Solana could be the biggest beneficiary of this wave of demand, with ETF approval looking imminent. A DTCC ticker has already been granted, pushing Polymarket odds higher for approval before the end of next month.
If you’d like to learn more about the MTC Digital Asset Fund, reach out to myself or the team. The asymmetric opportunity gets stronger every day – and a major breakout looks just around the corner.
Get in touch to discuss how digital assets fit in your portfolio:
🗓️ Key dates to watch
- 26 June – GDP growth rate QoQ final
- 27 June – Core PCE Price index
- 2/3 July – JOLTS Job Openings / Non Farm Payrolls
- 9 July – 90 day pause on rest of the world tariffs ends
- 15 July – US CPI
💡Q1 Investor Update + Market Outlook
Couldn’t make it live? You can now watch the full recording of our exclusive investor webinar featuring Dean Serroni (CEO), Ryan McMillin (CIO) & Gabriel Carey (Executive Director).
In this session, we covered:
- Key highlights from Q1 and year-to-date fund performance
- Will Trump’s proposed tariffs shake the crypto market? What you need to know
- The changing regulatory landscape: rollbacks and new crypto-friendly reforms
- Global liquidity trends and the monetary easing cycle
- Our latest outlook on Bitcoin, altcoins, and portfolio positioning
Click below to watch the replay and stay informed on how we’re navigating the evolving crypto landscape in 2025
💡Why We Exist – Giving You Confidence in Crypto
Accessing digital assets is hard. From self-custody risks to tax complexity and misinformation, the hurdles are high. That’s why we built an actively managed unit trust to help investors confidently access the most promising digital assets — the ones we believe will underpin the future of the financial internet over the next 5–10 years.
Our investors gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of high-quality crypto assets — without needing to manage wallets, exchanges, or tax chaos. We aim to simplify the experience, reduce risk, maximise potential yield, and bring institutional-grade risk management to every investor.
🧠 SMART
- Actively managed portfolio, aiming to enhance risk-adjusted returns
- Disciplined asset selection, with a long-term, buy-and-hold bias
- Yield from staking to help offset fees
- Simple access — no wallets, passwords, or crypto admin required
🔒 SECURE
- Institutional-grade custody with Coinbase Custody
- Staking conducted in insured cold storage
- Comprehensive counterparty due diligence
- Assets remain fully segregated and secure
🪙 CRYPTO
- Blockchain removes intermediaries, reducing cost and improving efficiency
- Transparent and borderless financial infrastructure
- Unlocking new use cases in payments, identity, infrastructure and beyond
📩 Interested in learning more? Visit www.merkle.com.au or reply to this email to book a call.