📢 April Signals
🗒️ Market update
🌺 As we send this update on ANZAC Day, we pause to honour the service and sacrifice of all Australian and New Zealand service members past and present. Lest We Forget.
There’s no doubt April has been one of the more volatile months in recent history. Tariffs have been in the centre spotlight as President Trump has introduced taxes on import goods, sending shockwaves through financial markets. While some countries such as China responded to the US tariffs with their own retaliatory measures, others such as Japan and South Korea with 70 or so more nations are engaging in tariff negotiations. Trump tried to curtail China’s rise in his first administration with direct tariffs however this just pushed third countries into the supply chain to circumvent his tariffs, this new approach requires much wider buy in and puts the third nations in a difficult position (for some) of having to choose a side.
Bitcoin through the majority of April ranged between $74,000 and $84,000, before breaking out to $94,000 this week its first higher high since mid-January, signalling a potential bottom may be in at $74,000.
Despite the major trade war headwind, some macroeconomic conditions are looking positive. US ‘Trueflation’, a measure of practical inflation, has held steady at 1.40%, reinforcing what President Trump has repeatedly emphasised – the Fed should cut rates and making sure Jerome Powell knows CPI is as low as its been since COVID. Gold, which many consider Bitcoin’s closest financial relative, has surged to $3,500 US per ounce, signalling strong demand for hard, non sovereign assets.
Over the past couple months, global liquidity has been a recurring popular discussion. This month, the global M2 money supply, a key indicator of available money (specifically cash, bank account deposits, small-denomination time deposits and retail money market funds in the global economy), has reached a new All Time High. Global Liquidity is particularly important for Bitcoin as more money in the global system will encourage spending on perceived risk assets or inflation hedge assets. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have coincided with the rapid expansion of global liquidity. We’re currently keeping our eyes on the chart above, which highlights the strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price action and the changes in M2. We’re confident that the correlation will continue to hold true and support a new all time high for BTC in the coming months.
Due to crypto being an emerging asset class, volatility is something that we must expect. Upon the announcement of the US Tariffs, the VIX index – which is a measure of equity market volatility – spiked to levels not seen since the pandemic in 2020. Naturally in times of crisis, investors will move out of risk assets. Unfortunately for crypto, which is deemed high risk, Altcoins faced the brunt of sell pressure. The chart above is the total market share of all cryptocurrencies, excluding the top 10 by market cap where we can see it has clearly bounced off a major support, putting in a higher low, while the sell off over the last few months was brutal the bull market is still intact. Increasing global liquidity, a decline in trade war tensions and central banks easing monetary policy could be the perfect storm for an altcoin season.
Lastly, April also saw a US Bitcoin ETF milestone of $100b assets under management. This surge in institutional investment into Bitcoin reflects a growing comfort with holding the asset on their balance sheets. The total amount of Bitcoin held by public companies has continued increase year on year. In Q1 12 new corporates (QoQ growth of 18%) added BTC to their balance sheets, Michael Saylor, the CEO of ‘Strategy’, bought over $3.2b worth of Bitcoin in the last month alone totalling to over 35,000 BTC. He now owns over 2% of Bitcoins total supply. When put into perspective, only 450 fresh bitcoins come onto the market each day through mining. Saylor’s buying pressure, coupled with institutional demand will inevitably lead to a supply shock. The question is when.
And a new MSTR launched this week? Headed by Jack Mallers and backed by Cantor, Softbank and Tether, ’21 Capital’ with 40,000 BTC on balance sheet it looks set for aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, starting very soon…
Get in touch to discuss how digital assets fit in your portfolio:
🗓️ Key dates to watch
- 29 March – JOLTS (job openings)
- 30 April – Core PCE (a soft print will increase pressure on Powell to cut)
- 2 May – Non Farm Payrolls
- 8 May – FOMC – Fed rate guidance (odds of a cut stand at just 8% today)
- 13 May – CPI (will it follow Truflation down?)
💡Why We Exist – Giving You Confidence in Crypto
Accessing digital assets is hard. From self-custody risks to tax complexity and misinformation, the hurdles are high. That’s why we built an actively managed unit trust to help investors confidently access the most promising digital assets — the ones we believe will underpin the future of the financial internet over the next 5–10 years.
Our investors gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of high-quality crypto assets — without needing to manage wallets, exchanges, or tax chaos. We aim to simplify the experience, reduce risk, maximise potential yield, and bring institutional-grade risk management to every investor.
🧠 SMART
- Actively managed portfolio, aiming to enhance risk-adjusted returns
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- Yield from staking to help offset fees
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🔒 SECURE
- Institutional-grade custody with Coinbase Custody
- Staking conducted in insured cold storage
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🪙 CRYPTO
- Blockchain removes intermediaries, reducing cost and improving efficiency
- Transparent and borderless financial infrastructure
- Unlocking new use cases in payments, identity, infrastructure and beyond