Crypto Market Insights – July 2025

📢 July Signals

🗒️ Market update

The market is looking strong, after rallying to a new all time high of US$123,000 by mid July, with ETH and other Alt Coins outperforming suggesting a long awaited Alt Coin Season may be at hand.  Or was this a one off sale of BTC that held it back?

In a historic move, Galaxy Digital executed the sale of 80,000 BTC ($9.6 billion) for a Satoshi-era whale between July 15 and July 25, 2025, marking one of the largest Bitcoin transactions ever. The coins, dormant since 2011, were transferred to Galaxy in batches—40,000 BTC on July 15–16 and 40,191 BTC on July 17–18—before being sold via OTC deals to minimise market impact. Despite speculation linking the coins to the 2011 MyBitcoin hack, Galaxy confirmed the sale was for estate planning, with no connection to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve discussed in the President’s Working Group report due to be released July 30, 2025.

Bitcoin’s price barely flinched, dipping 3–4% to $114,759 on July 25 before rebounding to $117,200–$117,500 by July 26, showcasing remarkable market resilience. This stability, driven by deep liquidity and institutional demand, signals to TradFi that Bitcoin can absorb massive sales with minimal disruption, akin to traditional markets. As regulatory clarity emerges, this event could boost institutional confidence, proving crypto’s maturity and encouraging further TradFi adoption.

BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA) reaches $10 billion in assets under management in just 251 days, making it the third-fastest ETF to hit this milestone, trailing only bitcoin ETFs IBIT (34 days) and FBTC (53 days), a feat driven by a remarkable $5 billion surge in 10 days, reflecting a 2025 surge in institutional interest in Ethereum amid regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act signed by President Trump.

TradFi is looking for ways to profit from a boom in stablecoin use post the GENIUS Act’s approval, and ETH sits right in the sweet spot, currently 50% of Stablecoins are issued on ETH, and ETH is the only stablecoin issuing blockchain that has a spot ETF.    

In a major step toward global trade stability, the United States reached headline agreements with both the European Union and Japan, sharply reducing the threat of disruptive tariff escalation. The deal with the EU, finalized on July 27, replaces previously threatened 30–50% duties with a more moderate 15% tariff across most imports, while preserving elevated rates on steel and aluminium. In exchange, the EU committed to significant long-term purchases of U.S. energy and large-scale investment in domestic infrastructure—moves seen as a political and economic win for both sides. The U.S.–Japan accord, lowering automotive and industrial tariffs from 25% to 15%, and securing over $550 billion in Japanese investment commitments, including supply chain re-shoring and defence collaboration. Together, these two pacts signal a pivot away from confrontation and toward more predictable, rules-based trade.  A deal with China also looks possible without a major escalation.

In short, the macro environment looks very good for the rest of the year, the only thing missing is some rate cuts. With pressure mounting on Powell and tariff disruption looking capped we eagerly await an update from Powell but do expect a cut in the September meeting and for risk assets to rally into and through the rest of the year.

The Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets, co-chaired by David Sacks and Bo Hines, is expected to release its long-anticipated policy report on July 30, following a short delay beyond the original July 22 deadline. This report is set to outline the federal government’s strategic vision for digital asset regulation, with a strong focus on the feasibility and potential implementation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR). The BSR proposal, floated earlier this year, would position Bitcoin as a supplemental macro-reserve asset—complementing gold and Treasury holdings—in response to global de-dollarization pressures and growing crypto adoption. While details remain under wraps, insiders suggest the report will include pathways for acquisition, custody standards, and institutional safeguards, as well as policy recommendations for integrating digital assets into the broader financial system. If the report affirms a serious roadmap for a BSR, it could mark a historic shift in U.S. monetary posture and trigger significant demand dynamics across global crypto markets.

If you’d like to learn more about the MTC Digital Asset Fund, reach out to myself or the team. The asymmetric opportunity gets stronger every day — and another major breakout looks just around the corner. 

🗓️ Key dates to watch

• 30 July – Job openings + GDP QoQ + President’s Crypto Working Group to publish its report.
• 31 July – FOMC rate decision (and commentary) + Core PCE
• 1 Aug – Non Farm payrolls and Unemployment rate
• 2 Aug – ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 12 Aug – CPI and Core inflation

💡Q2 Investor Update + Market Outlook

Couldn’t make it live? You can now watch the full recording of our exclusive investor webinar featuring Dean Serroni (CEO), Ryan McMillin (CIO) & Gabriel Carey (Executive Director).

In this session, we covered:

• Key highlights from Q2 and year-to-date fund performance
• Bitcoin at all-time highs – what this means for altcoins going forward
• Upcoming ETF approvals – Solana and other assets in the spotlight
• Policy and regulation updates – progress on the Clarity Act and stablecoin legislation
• Institutional adoption – from corporate treasuries to crypto ETFs
• Global monetary easing – liquidity trends and crypto market implications

Click below to watch the replay and stay informed on how we’re navigating the evolving crypto landscape in 2025

💡Why We Exist – Giving You Confidence in Crypto

Accessing digital assets is hard. From self-custody risks to tax complexity and misinformation, the hurdles are high. That’s why we built an actively managed unit trust to help investors confidently access the most promising digital assets — the ones we believe will underpin the future of the financial internet over the next 5–10 years.

Our investors gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of high-quality crypto assets — without needing to manage wallets, exchanges, or tax chaos. We aim to simplify the experience, reduce risk, maximise potential yield, and bring institutional-grade risk management to every investor.

🧠 SMART 

• Actively managed portfolio, aiming to enhance risk-adjusted returns
• Disciplined asset selection, with a long-term, buy-and-hold bias
• Yield from staking to help offset fees
• Simple access — no wallets, passwords, or crypto admin required

🔒 SECURE 

• Institutional-grade custody with Coinbase Custody
• Staking conducted in insured cold storage
• Comprehensive counterparty due diligence
• Assets remain fully segregated and secure

 🪙 CRYPTO 

• Blockchain removes intermediaries, reducing cost and improving efficiency
• Transparent and borderless financial infrastructure
• Unlocking new use cases in payments, identity, infrastructure and beyond

📩 Interested in learning more? Visit www.merkle.com.au or reply to this email to book a call.