📢 May Signals
🗒️ Market update
Bitcoin returns to all-time highs as tariff tensions ease and more corporates embrace the MSTR treasury strategy.
Bitcoin tagged US$112,000 last week — a new all-time high — maintaining a strong correlation to Global M2 as corporate treasury buying of BTC gathers pace. Jamie Dimon waves the white flag, Moody’s downgrades US debt, major US banks explore stablecoin launches following the GENIUS Act, and Ethereum catches a bid. And that’s just scratching the surface.
Bitcoin’s rally looks set to continue, with the ~80% trailing correlation to Global M2 holding. This correlation will eventually break, but until then, it should be treated as the base case. The next three months could see the market move significantly higher.
BTC flips Amazon to become the fifth-largest asset by market cap. Next up: Apple. Based on current macro trends and signposts, we expect to see BTC in second place within 12 months, potentially by year-end, as investors increasingly favour monetary debasement hedges like gold and Bitcoin over the Mag 7 stocks.
Macro Signposts Driving This Cycle:
- DOGE unable to meaningfully reduce the deficit
- A “big, beautiful bill” proposing 33% more deficit spending
- Scott Bessent flagging changes to the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (banks will have to buy more long-dated debt because no one else will)
- Moody’s downgrading US debt – not an immediate shock, but a direction of travel that’s hard to reverse
- Tepid demand at last week’s 20-year bond auction (Reuters)
- Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields spiking (see below)— no one wants the debt, and the Japanese government already owns over 50% of it
- Bessent: “We’ll grow GDP faster than the debt” to stabilise debt-to-GDP — a stretch at best
- Stablecoin bill passed — could require issuers to hold longer-dated Treasuries, not just short-term paper
The bond market is not well. The debt issue has been unsustainable for years, but now appears to be nearing a crisis point. As with every prior financial crisis, the “fix” for too much debt is… more debt.
There is no alternative:
- Default would be catastrophic
- Austerity, despite DOGE’s best efforts, is neither palatable to voters nor sufficient
- Tax hikes face the same limits
That leaves one lever: the money printer. It avoids immediate pain but guarantees future inflation — which is exactly why Gold and Bitcoin should go much higher.
While most attention is on Bitcoin — especially as more corporates follow MSTR’s lead — Ethereum also caught a strong bid, jumping 50% in one week in May. While the move coincided with an upgrade, we believe it may also signal the impending return of altcoin season.
If liquidity is expanding, alts typically outperform. BTC and SOL remain leaders, while EVM ecosystems (especially L2s) continue to lag. Solana, meanwhile, executes 10x more transactions than any other chain and remains underpriced in our view.
Another huge month for crypto lies ahead. We expect more major Bitcoin-related announcements later this week as the Bitcoin Las Vegas Conference kicks off.
If you’d like to learn more about the MTC Digital Asset Fund, reach out to myself or the team. The asymmetric opportunity gets stronger every day — and a major breakout looks just around the corner.
Get in touch to discuss how digital assets fit in your portfolio:
🗓️ Key dates to watch
- 29 May – GDP growth rate QoQ Est
- 30 May – Core PCE Price index
- 4/6 June – JOLTS Job Openings / Non Farm Payrolls
- 11 June – US CPI
💡Q1 Investor Update + Market Outlook
Couldn’t make it live? You can now watch the full recording of our exclusive investor webinar featuring Dean Serroni (CEO), Ryan McMillin (CIO) & Gabriel Carey (Executive Director).
In this session, we covered:
- Key highlights from Q1 and year-to-date fund performance
- Will Trump’s proposed tariffs shake the crypto market? What you need to know
- The changing regulatory landscape: rollbacks and new crypto-friendly reforms
- Global liquidity trends and the monetary easing cycle
- Our latest outlook on Bitcoin, altcoins, and portfolio positioning
Click below to watch the replay and stay informed on how we’re navigating the evolving crypto landscape in 2025
💡Why We Exist – Giving You Confidence in Crypto
Accessing digital assets is hard. From self-custody risks to tax complexity and misinformation, the hurdles are high. That’s why we built an actively managed unit trust to help investors confidently access the most promising digital assets — the ones we believe will underpin the future of the financial internet over the next 5–10 years.
Our investors gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of high-quality crypto assets — without needing to manage wallets, exchanges, or tax chaos. We aim to simplify the experience, reduce risk, maximise potential yield, and bring institutional-grade risk management to every investor.
🧠 SMART
- Actively managed portfolio, aiming to enhance risk-adjusted returns
- Disciplined asset selection, with a long-term, buy-and-hold bias
- Yield from staking to help offset fees
- Simple access — no wallets, passwords, or crypto admin required
🔒 SECURE
- Institutional-grade custody with Coinbase Custody
- Staking conducted in insured cold storage
- Comprehensive counterparty due diligence
- Assets remain fully segregated and secure
🪙 CRYPTO
- Blockchain removes intermediaries, reducing cost and improving efficiency
- Transparent and borderless financial infrastructure
- Unlocking new use cases in payments, identity, infrastructure and beyond
📩 Interested in learning more? Visit www.merkle.com.au or reply to this email to book a call.