It has increasingly felt like a tale of two markets: “equity crypto” vs “native crypto.” Tokens that could access public equity markets via spot ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, BTC, ETH and to a lesser extent SOL, were supported by new institutional equity market capital. Assets locked out of that channel bore the brunt of each macro shock, with thin order books amplifying liquidations at every CPI print, FOMC meeting and risk-off episode.

Macro only added to the puzzle. Global M2 expanded, gold had an excellent year, and global equities continued to grind to new highs. In that context, Bitcoin’s failure to lead the rest of crypto higher has been difficult to reconcile. The only structurally profitable actors in digital assets this year were market makers and leverage providers, repeatedly liquidating over-extended leverage positions, precisely the behaviour the Clarity Act is designed to curtail.

The four-year cycle now looks to be dying a slow, noisy death. We did not get the final parabolic blow-off that many expected; instead, we saw sustained supply from long-term holders and early investors taking advantage of new liquidity. That supply pressure suggests the cycle framework is not entirely dead yet, but one more liquidity-driven rally in Q1 or Q2 next year, without a classic blow-off, will probably mark the end of it. The balance of power is shifting from crypto-native flows to larger, slower pools of capital in TradFi.

We think of this as crypto’s IPO moment. In any major listing, when VC and early insiders finally receive liquidity on multi-year paper gains, many will take some risk off. Meta is a useful analogue: post-IPO there was a 12-month period when incremental supply from insiders outweighed demand, keeping the share price contained despite strong fundamentals. Once that supply abated, the stock re-rated sharply higher (it now trades above US$650). Crypto is going through a similar transition: early holders are selling into the first truly institutional liquidity window.

TradFi’s “never crypto” crowd blinks

Perhaps the most important shift in 2025 came from the “never crypto” camp in traditional finance.

Jamie Dimon now openly concedes that crypto, blockchain and stablecoins represent “real innovation”, even as he continues to disparage Bitcoin in interviews. Under his watch, JPMorgan is preparing to allow institutional clients to post Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral, a significant step from the world’s largest bank.

Vanguard, long a hold-out, has effectively capitulated to client demand by offering Bitcoin exposure rather than continuing to lose accounts to competitors. The tone remains sceptical, but the product shelf has changed. At the same time, we have seen sovereign wealth funds and university endowments adding BTC exposure, often quietly, often with caveats about volatility, but adding nonetheless.

And Larry Fink has been explicit: we are at the start of the tokenisation era, with “everything heading on-chain” over time. That framing, tokenised collateral and tokenised funds as basic financial plumbing, is markedly different from the “speculative asset” narrative of previous cycles.

Regulation: from enforcement to rulebook

Regulation also took a decisive step forward. Under new SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the U.S. has shifted from an enforcement-first posture towards building a clearer rulebook for digital assets: a dedicated crypto task force, a focus on “common sense” market-structure reform, and a stated aim to support innovation while cleaning up the worst excesses.

Atkins has been explicit that “you ain’t seen nothing yet” regarding the SEC’s crypto agenda, framing forthcoming rule-making as an enabler, not a choke point. That is a stark contrast to the prior era, where every wallet risked being treated as a broker and on-chain activity was viewed primarily through an enforcement lens.

The crypto Clarity Act would likely have passed already were it not for the government shutdown. Its eventual passage should be another material tailwind for the sector in 2026. The direction of travel is clear, even if – as 2025 demonstrated – the path is anything but linear.