Year in Review & 2024 Predictions

by | Jan 2, 2024

How did our predictions from December 2022 go? 

1. Regulatory clarity – 50/50 we did predict no bills would pass in 2023, and we did see rules published in the EU, UK, HK & Australia, but we had hoped for more from the US, the judicial system gave the industry several high profile wins against the SEC, but nothing out of the law making branch of government, this probably continues until after the 2024 elections.

2. 1 billion NFT owners – epic fail… the corporates who are dabbling in this space really didn’t come to the party on this one, we could see this pick up pace in 2024 as interest in NFTs heats up with the rest of the sector.

3. Bitcoin to outperform all asset classes – nailed it. Nearly 100% outperformance of the next best asset class, the NASDAQ, with just 2 weeks left in the year happy to chalk that up as a win.

4. Web 2 co-opts Web 3 – 50/50 while Google has some ties with Solana and AWS some with AVAX this still hasn’t completely played out.

Our 2024 Predictions

1. BTC again is the best performing asset class (per the above table) in 2024 and reach reaches a new all-time high (US$69k).  And while on BTC, the spot ETF launches are collectively the most successful ETF launches in history.

2. Solana outperforms Ethereum – Solana’s performance and low cost see more new projects building on Solana. ETH will upgrade to be faster and cheaper, but Firedancer will put SOL in another universe of performance.

3.  Breakout blockchain game – a game reaches 1m daily active users, is not based on a ‘play to earn’ or similar structure but rather a AAA game that gamers enjoy playing integrating tokenomics or NFTs as a feature rather than the main event.

4. DePIN – Decentralised Physical Infrastructure Networks hit mainstream consciousness in 2024, cheaper, user owned decentralised services for data storage, compute power, wifi, maps etc.  Having built up through the bear market under the radar these networks will finally show mainstream the power of blockchain and decentralisation.