💡Webinar: Q3 Fund Update & Market Outlook
View the recording from our recent webinar where we cover:
MTC Digital Asset Fund – Fund update:
- Highlights of Q3 and YTD
- Bitcoin & Solana outperforming
Q4 and 2025 Market outlook:
- US Election implications
- New monetary easing cycle
- ‘Alt-coin’ bull market timing
📢 October Signals
🗒️ Market update
‘Uptober’ is living up to its name, BTC pushing higher in to the previous cycle high of US$69k and looking at the first consecutive positive months since March. This close to the election we might need to be patient for a break out as serious capital is more likely to sit on the sidelines and wait for confirmation of outcome before deploying. Markets love certainty and the US election as big as it gets for uncertainty, we anticipate the market rallies no matter the outcome. But a Trump victory would likely lead to a great rally as he has clearly been more pro crypto than Harris, although it should be noted that Harris looks like an improvement on Biden with Key advisers including crypto advocates Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci.
Odds are hard to judge with prediction market blowing out as far as 65% for a Trump win while polls are much tighter they are also moving in Trumps favour. Druckenmiller, one of the greatest investors of all time (IMO), told Bloomberg last week that he doesn’t follow polls, he follows the market, and the market is telling him Trump is winning. Interestingly Druckenmiller is also short US Treasuries (with 20% of his portfolio), fading the Fed position that inflation and rates will continue to fall. His contemporary, Paul Tudor Jones, agrees with this trade although has expressed it by being long gold, Bitcoin and commodities.
Post election bitcoin rallies have also kicked off ‘alt coin’ bull markets or ‘Alt Season’ where the smaller cap coins significantly outperform Bitcoin. Expressed below where bitcoin dominance is falling (the is BTC’s market cap as a % of the total crypto market cap). Our base case is history repeating, or at least rhyming, and a 12 month alt coin rally is just around the corner.
Meme coins started gaining traction over the last month, whatever you might think of them the virality and engagement associated with the sector is hard to ignore. They are also a good indicator for risk, and while they are easy to critique as have no lasting value they are a great onboarding tool as they capture the imagination of new crypto investors. They are chasing big returns, but so are lottery ticket buyers, the odds in meme coins look a lot better and don’t require hours and hours of research to understand the tokenomics, use case, adoption rates and total addressable market of a protocol. Coin with picture of a dog wearing a hat and number go up = happy.
ETH continues to underperform both BTC and SOL, SOL/ETH breaking out to a new all time high. ETH bulls could be in with some respite soon, if an alt season does kick off they can expect to outperform BTC, although we don’t think it will outperform SOL throughout this bull market.
Key dates to watch
- 5 November – US Election (the big date to watch)
- 30 October – Jobs openings
- 31 October – Core PCE
- 1 November – Non Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate
- 7 November – FOMC meeting (markets expects a 25bp cut)
Get in touch to discuss how digital assets fit in your portfolio:
The Merkle Tree Capital “Why?”
We know accessing the digital asset sector is challenging, presenting a new set of risks that most investors are not familiar with, and there is a lot of sub-standard information flying around. That is why we created an actively managed unit trust aiming to hold the best digital assets that will form the basis of the ecosystem over the next 5-10 years.
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