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Newsletter #24 – Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset?

by | Aug 1, 2024

🥇 The Aussie funds that beat bitcoin and big tech

Financial review

We are delighted to announce that the AFR recently reported that Merkle Tree Capital has emerged as the best performing fund manager of the last financial year… Click here to view the full article

July signals

🗒️ Market update

Bitcoin Conferences are always full of exciting announcements, and Nashville Bitcoin Conference was no exception! The conference had the most influential line up of speakers to date and they did not disappoint the crowds of bitcoiners, the single most applauded statement was probably ‘on day 1 I’ll fire Gary Gensler.’ Talk about knowing your audience!  other notable announcements included:

1. Donald Trump’s endorsement: The former president gave a keynote speech, proclaiming himself as a “crypto president” and expressing strong support for Bitcoin. He stated, “If crypto is going to define the future, I want it to be mined, minted and made in the USA”.

2. BlackRock’s institutional adoption: Robert Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, highlighted the growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs. He noted that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now refers to Bitcoin as “digital gold”.

3. Michael Saylor’s price predictions: The MicroStrategy CEO forecasted a spectacular increase in Bitcoin’s value over the next two decades, with potential scenarios ranging from $3 million to $49 million per coin by 2045 (see below).

Bitcoin 21-year pice forecast

4. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s proposal: He suggested transferring 204,000 Bitcoins held by the U.S. to the Federal Reserve as a “strategic asset” and proposed that the U.S. Treasury buy 500 BTC daily until reaching a 4 million BTC reserve.

6. VanEck’s economic analysis: The firm released a report highlighting Bitcoin’s potential role in the shifting global economic landscape, particularly as traditional currencies like the euro and yen decline in international settlements.

7. Senator Cynthia Lummis: made a significant announcement regarding new legislation she plans to introduce. The proposed bill aims to position Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. Federal Reserve. 

These announcements reflect growing institutional interest, political support, and technological advancements in the Bitcoin ecosystem, potentially signalling a new phase of adoption and integration into mainstream finance and politics.  Game theory is already at play, a H.K. legislator has already stated their interest in a bitcoin reserve.  

Where are we in the cycle? Early, if we consider precious cycles. With global liquidity on the rise, it is not hard to see us following a path similar to the last 2 cycles.

Bitcoin price cycle

The ETH ETFs are off and running.  However, ETHE, the Grayscale trust now ETF, is selling off at a much faster rate than the GBTC trust/ETF (see below). Inflows into the new ETFs are not able to keep pace.  ETHE has already lost 20% of its assets in just a few days. Is this a case of ‘ripping of the bandaid’ or should we be worried about greater total outflows? That remains to be seen. There have been very solid inflows, but we need another couple of weeks of flows to properly gauge the situation.

GBTC vs ETHE

Mt. Gox distributions have finally begun, and there has been no noticeable selling so far. The first tranche of around 47,000 BTC (and 47,000 BCH) has been transferred to exchanges, and Kraken, one of a handful, have confirmed they have sent this on to the ultimate beneficiaries. No mass selling occurred, which should not be a great surprising, we’ve always thought that after 10 years of waiting these Bitcoin OGs finally get their hands on their bitcoin, they are more likely to move it to cold storage than sell it. We are closely watching the BCH/BTC chart as we believe it is more likely this cohort will sell the BCH and buy BTC, but we have not seen this chart break down yet.  A break would tell us.

BCH-BTC chart

 Key dates to watch

  • 30 July – JOLTS Job Openings
  • 31 July – FOMC meeting
  • 2 Aug – Non Farm Payrolls data
  • 14 Aug – CPI data

Get in touch to discuss how digital assets fit in your portfolio:

www.merkle.com.au or  [email protected]

💡 From Data to Dominance: AI’s Growing Role in Crypto

From Data to Dominance - AI’s Growing Role in Crypto

Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs data to work, learn, and improve. Crypto is all about data. This data exists not only in finance news and online chatter but also on the blockchain, where every interaction and transaction is meticulously recorded and stored. The beauty of blockchain data is its 100% verifiability. Unlike the internet, where anyone can contribute, leading to the spread of false and incorrect information, blockchain ensures that every data point is true and reliable. This verifiable data is gold for AI, paving the way for some truly amazing use cases.  

Click here to read the full article by Asher Baron!

The Merkle Tree Capital “Why?”

We know accessing the digital asset sector is challenging, presenting a new set of risks that most investors are not familiar with, and there is a lot of sub-standard information flying around. That is why we created an actively managed unit trust aiming to hold the best digital assets that will form the basis of the ecosystem over the next 5-10 years.

Investors can now access this new asset class without concerns around self-custody or dealing with unknown counterparties, simplify their tax reporting, avoid single asset risk, maximise yield, and access institutional risk management and portfolio construction.   

SMART – actively managed, enhance risk adjusted returns, sophisticated portfolio construction, staking yield, simple exposure – no passwords or digital wallets

SECURE – institutional custody, staking in cold storage, insurance, counterparty due diligence 

CRYPTO – Blockchain eliminates intermediaries, lowers costs and improves efficiency by bringing transparency and security.