📢 June Signals

🗓️ Key dates to watch

• 27 June – US GDP Q1 final
• 28 June – Core PCE
• 2 July – Job Opening data / Spot ETH ETF launch date?
• 5 July – Non Farm Payrolls / Unemployment rate
• 11 July – CPI/PPI

⚒️ Fundamentals

• First Solana ETF in North America set to launch on Toronto Stock Exchange
• National Australia Bank’s Venture Arm Invests in Crypto-Focused Zodia Custody
• US SEC Ends Investigation into Ethereum, Says No Further Legal Action Will Be Taken
• ASX’s first Bitcoin ETF taps $1.3M volume on first trading day
• Asset managers update proposals for Ether ETFs, eyeing July launch
• PayPal Makes Retail Stablecoin Play with PYUSD on Solana
• Michael Dell’s Bitcoin post sparks massive BTC purchase speculations

🗒️ Market update

We are still range bound in the $60-72k zone, we remain confident of a short squeeze when we hit $72k but it looks increasingly likely we’ll sweep back to the range low around $60k first.  Last year we spent ~220 days range bound, currently at ~117 days but do not expect to spend as long range bound this time.

Macro is playing a part as we wait for clear direction from the Fed, jobs data is looking shaking and does roll over quickly when it turns which will support the market for the next move higher however there something more unique to bitcoin going on too, in the immediate aftermath of a halving, miners, whose revenue has just been cut in half, have an opportunity to pressure their weaker competitors out of the market. Miners with the strongest balance sheets have been selling their bitcoin forcing unprofitable miners to also sell to keep the lights on (3,000 BTC sold by miners over the last 30 days). Hash rate is down about 20% since the halving so this is happening, but is also temporary in nature, as weaker miners ‘capitulate’.

A lot of focus over the last week or so has been on Miner Capitulation and Hash Ribbons… Miner Capitulation is when miners become unprofitable, they have to turn off their mining rigs and sell their bitcoin to survive, a technical indicator Hash Ribbons was created to monitor this phenomenon.

The Hash Ribbons consist of two moving averages: a 30-day moving average and a 60-day moving average of the Bitcoin network hashrate.

Miner Capitulation: When the 30-day moving average crosses below the 60-day moving average, it indicates that miners are shutting down their operations due to low profitability, leading to a drop in the hashrate.

Recovery: When the 30-day moving average crosses back above the 60-day moving average, it signals that miners are resuming their operations, indicating a recovery in the network hashrate.

Market Implications: The end of miner capitulation and the start of recovery often coincide with a bottom in Bitcoin prices, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors.

Current situation:

The red in the lower section of the chart illustrates miner capitulation, starting mid May and finishing a couple of days ago, although has since re entered ‘capitulation’.

2020 Post Halving:

A similar looking period of miner capitulation occurred in 2020, and the post halving rally commenced about 3 weeks after the technical capitulation ended i.e. ‘Recovery’.  We could see this repeat, meanwhile we closely monitor miners selling BTC and hashrate recovering for further confirmation this idiosyncratic quadrennial event repeats.

The ETH ETFs could launch as soon as 2 July, it will be interesting to see how they land, they do have the potential to kick start an Alt season, although it would be more common to see one last BTC rally before Alt season starts.  And in late news a spot SOL ETF has been applied for in Canada by asset manager 3iQ Digital Asset Management, will US asset managers soon follow? It doesn’t hurt to be first in line!

💡 Merkle Insight: Understanding PYUSD, a stablecoin by PayPal

In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, stablecoins have emerged as essential components, offering stability in an otherwise volatile market. One such stablecoin making waves is PYUSD, introduced by PayPal. This article will explore PYUSD’s significant integration with Solana, a blockchain known for its speed, efficiency, and growing dominance in the crypto ecosystem. Ultimately, representing a significant leap forward for the mass adoption of crypto infrastructure, laying the groundwork for Solana to become the blockchain of choice. Click here to read the full article by Asher Baron!

▶️ Why Solana Will Eventually Flip Ethereum | Lightspeed podcast

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