The default case for further Bitcoin bear is reasonable. But it does not account for the volatility dampening of institutional ETF demand.
Let’s start with what the historical record actually says. Bitcoin bear markets have followed a remarkably consistent template: roughly twelve months of pain, peak to trough, with drawdown severity diminishing each cycle as the market matures, in 2011 in the 90% range then 80% then 70% range.
Each cycle, the floor rises, a function of deeper liquidity, broader ownership, and a larger base of holders unwilling to sell at any price. Extrapolating the trend places this cycle’s theoretical trough somewhere around 60% down from the October 2025 ATH of $126,000. That implies a potential bottom in the $40,000–$50,000 range.