🎄✨ From all of us at Merkle Tree Capital, we wish you a very Merry Christmas and a truly magical festive season! ✨🎄
To our incredible investors, partners, and supporters: thank you for making 2024 a remarkable year. Together, we’ve achieved so much, and the best is yet to come. The stage is set for an electrifying 2025, and we can’t wait to embark on this next chapter with you! 🚀
As you celebrate, take time to relax, recharge, and soak up the holiday joy. Stay safe, and we’ll see you in the New Year, ready to make it one for the history books!
If you have decided that 2025 is the year that you will invest into the digital asset sector, please reach out!
With warm holiday wishes,
The Merkle Tree Capital Team 🎁
📢 December Signals
🗒️ Year in Review and 2025 Predictions
1. BTC Performance and Spot ETF Launches:
Success Rate: Very High
We predicted Bitcoin would be the best performing asset class in 2024 and reach a new all-time high of US$69k. In reality, BTC went well beyond that, surpassing $100,000. Additionally, we foresaw that the spot Bitcoin ETFs would be the most successful ETF launches in history, and this indeed came true with over $35 billion in flows, confirming our expectations.
2. Solana outperforms Ethereum
Success Rate: Very High
We believed Solana would outperform Ethereum due to its performance and lower costs, with more projects building on Solana. Our prediction was correct; Solana has returned ~92% YTD vs ETH ~52% YTD. Firedancer has put Solana in a league of its own, and Solana is now processing 2/3rds of all blockchain transactions.
3. Breakout Blockchain Game
Success Rate: Medium to Low
While game activity did pick up, reaching 4.2 million daily active wallets earlier in the year and Hamster Kombat reportedly attracted over 100m users, this is not a AAA game nor were there 1 million DAU for any single high quality blockchain based game.
4. DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks):
Success Rate: Medium
We predicted that DePIN would hit mainstream consciousness, offering cheaper, user-owned decentralised services for various utilities. Helium Mobile ticks this box for us, with close to 125,000 users signed up over the course of 2024 and prominent deals signed with T-Mobile in the U.S. and Mexico. However, has not yet reached public consciousness in Australia.
2025 Predictions
1. Bitcoin again beating all traditional asset classes and ETF flows to surpass the already record breaking 2024 flows. The U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve will happen, and more corporates will put Bitcoin on their balance sheets. We expect Bitcoin to reach $250k USD in Q3/Q4.
2. Solana to reach 50% of Ethereum market cap, currently SOL/ETH market cap is around 20-25%.
3. Crypto IPOs and M&A kick of big time. We anticipate some major IPO’s in 2025, Circle, Kraken & CoreWeave top of the list. A friendly SEC will give major market participants the confidence they require to engage in both IPO and M&A activity.
4. Real World Assets (RWA) hits mainstream consciousness. Stablecoin (the original RWA) supply to double exceeding $400Bn and plans for a new blockchain based equity exchange able to support equities trading 24/7 are announced.
5. Crypto ETF’s and Alt Season. A number of crypto ETF’s including Solana to be approved with significant capital flowing into alternative coins triggering a period of outperformance of Bitcoin (Alt Season).
🗓️ Key dates to watch
- 7/10 January – U.S. Jobs data JOLTs/Non Farm Payrolls
- 15 January – U.S. Inflation data
- 20 January – DAY 1 for the Trump Administration
- 29 January – FOMC meeting
Get in touch to discuss how digital assets fit in your portfolio:
💡The Merkle Tree Capital “Why?”
We know accessing the digital asset sector is challenging, presenting a new set of risks that most investors are not familiar with, and there is a lot of sub-standard information flying around. That is why we created an actively managed unit trust aiming to hold the best digital assets that will form the basis of the ecosystem over the next 5-10 years.
Investors can now access this new asset class without concerns around self-custody or dealing with unknown counterparties, simplify their tax reporting, avoid single asset risk, maximise yield, and access institutional risk management and portfolio construction.
🧠 SMART – actively managed, enhance risk adjusted returns, sophisticated portfolio construction, staking yield, simple exposure – no passwords or digital wallets
🔒 SECURE – institutional custody, staking in cold storage, insurance, counterparty due diligence
🪙 CRYPTO – Blockchain eliminates intermediaries, lowers costs and improves efficiency by bringing transparency and security.